The Mid-Year Housing Market Reality Check
There’s never been a better time to make a move, and the data actually backs that up, even if the headlines don’t make it feel that way.
Homes are still selling. Prices are still rising. And buyers who are ready to act are finding opportunities that didn’t exist a year ago. The market is open. But to navigate it well, you need an honest picture of where things stand, so let’s get into it.
The 2026 Forecast Got Revised. Here’s What Changed.
2026 hasn’t played out the way anyone expected. At the end of last year, forecasters were optimistic: rates would ease, affordability would improve, and sidelined buyers would finally get back in the game. Instead, lingering inflation, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions pushed mortgage rates higher than projected, and the major industry organizations adjusted their outlooks accordingly.
Experts recently revised their housing forecasts for the rest of the year (see graph below):
Mortgage Rates Are Staying Higher Than Expected, But They’re Still Lower Than Last Year
The dream was rates back in the upper 5s or low 6s. The reality is that most experts are now projecting the mid-6s for the remainder of the year. That’s not the relief many buyers were waiting for, but it’s still lower than where rates were a year ago, and it’s a workable number for buyers who are ready to move. If you’re wondering whether it still makes sense to buy at today’s rates, we break that down in [Wondering If You Should Still Buy a Home Right Now? Here’s What To Keep in Mind.]
Home Sales Slowed Down, But We’re Still Selling More Than Last Year
Existing home sales estimates dropped from 4.5 million to about 4.2 million. Affordability remains the biggest friction point, especially for first-time buyers managing higher monthly payments. But even at the revised number, we’re on pace to outsell 2025. The market hasn’t stalled. It’s just moving more deliberately. If you’re a first-time buyer feeling the squeeze, it’s also worth reading [Could Co-Buying Be the Answer for Some First-Time Buyers?] for one creative approach that’s working for a lot of people right now.
New Construction Is Slower, Which Means More Leverage for Buyers
New home sales projections came in just under 700,000, slightly below earlier targets. Economists expect we’ll be just shy of that number. But here’s the opportunity in that: when builders are eager to sell, buyers have leverage. Rate buydowns, closing cost contributions, and pricing flexibility are still very much on the table in markets with active new construction. And if you haven’t been watching the new construction space, you should be. [Newly Built Home Prices Hit a 5-Year Low] explains exactly why this may be the best window for new builds in years.
Home Prices Are Still Rising, and Experts Aren’t Forecasting a Drop
This is the part that surprises most people. Despite slower sales volume, national home price forecasts have not been revised downward. Prices are still expected to rise this year because inventory, while improving in some areas, remains constrained. Limited supply keeps prices supported even in a slower market. For sellers, your equity is intact. For buyers, waiting for a price correction may not be the strategy you think it is. We dig deeper into this in [Are Home Prices Going To Fall?] if you want the full data picture.
Pent-Up Demand Is Real, and It’s Coming
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has pointed to a significant pool of buyers ready to move when conditions shift. Pending home sales have already been improving month over month despite elevated rates, which tells you that motivated buyers are finding ways to make it work right now. And the broader case for why buying still beats waiting is laid out clearly in [Rent or Buy? The Real Tradeoff Most People Don’t Talk About.] When rates do eventually move, competition will spike and that window of opportunity narrows fast. Getting in ahead of that wave is a real advantage.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, says:
“There is sizable pent-up demand that could be released into the market.”
There has already been a few glimmers of renewed hope lately. In recent months, pending homes sale have been improving month-over-month despite higher rates.
So, if you’re able to afford a home at today’s rates, it could still make sense to buy now. Because otherwise, if you wait, you’ll have more competition (and potentially fewer homes to choose from) when those others buyers jump back in.
Home Prices Are Still Expected To Rise
This is one of the most important takeaways from the entire forecast. Even though sales activity is slower, on average, experts did not revise their home price forecast downward.
What This Means for You, Right Here in South Jersey and the Philadelphia Suburbs
National forecasts give you context. Your local market gives you the actual answer. South Jersey and the Philadelphia suburbs have their own inventory levels, price trends, and buyer activity that don’t always mirror what’s happening nationally. For a closer look at what’s driving our specific market right now, check out our [South Jersey Real Estate Market Update 2026: Trends, Prices and Insights.] And if you’re a first-time buyer trying to figure out where to start, our [Step-by-Step Guide to Buying Your First Home in NJ] walks you through the full process.
What the forecasters are describing is the backdrop. What’s happening in your specific neighborhood is what drives your decision.
If you’re trying to figure out whether now is the right time to buy, sell, or simply reassess your plans, that’s exactly the conversation we’re built for. We’ll give you a straight answer based on what’s actually happening in your market, not a national average.
Reach out to the MH Global team. Let’s map out your next move.
